Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.205361 0.246673 0.296199 0.360566 0.442920 0.546000 6.867779e-01
2025-06-01 0.150638 0.197483 0.260201 0.352327 0.487734 0.685367 1.007347e+00
2025-06-08 0.115962 0.163389 0.233075 0.347040 0.537300 0.859477 1.489074e+00
2025-06-15 0.092957 0.139595 0.214107 0.348835 0.603516 1.105856 2.304575e+00
2025-06-22 0.075874 0.120551 0.197517 0.350330 0.676237 1.427612 3.661350e+00
2025-06-29 0.060548 0.100696 0.174287 0.332466 0.707655 1.707217 5.409182e+00
2025-07-06 0.044032 0.075152 0.134261 0.267368 0.604021 1.586173 5.799804e+00
2025-07-13 0.037415 0.066374 0.124408 0.264792 0.657759 1.988894 9.389256e+00
2025-07-20 0.033075 0.061014 0.120165 0.274438 0.756735 2.696327 1.767898e+01
2025-07-27 0.029822 0.057137 0.118174 0.289914 0.892665 3.826234 3.810979e+01
2025-08-03 0.026765 0.053023 0.114598 0.300325 1.028001 5.325481 8.702820e+01
2025-08-10 0.023488 0.047756 0.106862 0.295385 1.104716 6.773773 1.849834e+02
2025-08-17 0.020194 0.042038 0.097118 0.282188 1.149610 8.376371 4.251159e+02
2025-08-24 0.018129 0.038822 0.093235 0.288213 1.310505 12.103755 1.803219e+03
2025-08-31 0.016362 0.035980 0.089666 0.294430 1.496369 17.930007 1.462960e+04
2025-09-07 0.014944 0.033737 0.087262 0.304870 1.745165 28.345627 1.081513e+06
2025-09-14 0.013670 0.031619 0.084672 0.313856 2.021915 45.827238 NaN
2025-09-21 0.012202 0.028699 0.078737 0.304398 2.139090 63.408876 NaN
2025-09-28 0.010101 0.023718 0.064908 0.249837 1.739648 50.077056 NaN
2025-10-05 0.009272 0.022161 0.062246 0.250815 1.924772 76.655753 NaN
2025-10-12 0.008715 0.021277 0.061661 0.262775 2.281324 144.067806 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008279 0.020662 0.061883 0.280076 2.791877 320.837177 NaN
2025-10-26 0.007810 0.019865 0.061227 0.292351 3.313435 736.508643 NaN